Prix des maisons : ça s’arrête quand?

Balance_maison_IS Par Sophie Stival

Chaque mois, on nous annonce la fin du boom immobilier. Le mois suivant, le prix des maisons touche un nouveau sommet.

Pendant que la valeur des hypothèques assurées par la SCHL franchit le chiffre symbolique de 500 milliards de dollars au Canada, les nouveaux acheteurs doivent, eux, débourser en moyenne 373 000 $ pour s’acheter une maison au pays.

Quand ça s’arrêtera?


Depuis deux ans, Ottawa resserre progressivement ses règles d’emprunt hypothécaires. Au printemps dernier, on a donné un autre tour de vis en diminuant de nouveau la période d’amortissement maximale (durée totale du prêt) à 30 ans. De même, lors d’un refinancement, on ne peut qu’emprunter 90 % de la valeur de notre habitation (avant c’était 95 %). 

Ces règles souhaitent protéger les emprunteurs qui achètent des maisons au-dessus de leur moyen alors que les taux d’intérêt sont historiquement bas et qu’ils pourraient remonter prochainement.

Ralentissement en vue?

 Selon l’Association canadienne de l’immeuble (ACI) les ventes ont baissé de 4,7 % au pays au 2e trimestre par rapport au trimestre précédent. L’ACI explique ce phénomène « en partie par les nouveaux règlements hypothécaires annoncés en janvier et entrés en vigueur à la fin de mars, qui ont fait augmenter les ventes au premier trimestre, au détriment des ventes conclues en avril et en mai. » La hausse des taux d’intérêt hypothécaires pendant ces deux mois a également pu freiner les ardeurs de gens, ajoute-t-on.

Le prix moyen d’une maison a grimpé de près de 9 % entre juin 2010 et juin 2011. Bien sûr, ce prix moyen de 372 700 $ tient compte des ventes à Vancouver où les transactions supérieures à un million de dollars sont courantes. L’ACI souligne que ce marché n’a toutefois plus un aussi grand effet sur la moyenne nationale. Enfin, il est intéressant de souligner que 80 % des marchés locaux au pays ont connu une hausse sur une période d’un an.

Au Québec 

La Chambre immobilière du Québec est un peu moins optimiste. Selon le Baromètre MLS du marché résidentiel, les ventes ont diminué de 5 % au 2e trimestre de 2011. Bien qu’il existe une grande différence entre les régions quant à l’évolution des ventes, la hausse du nombre d’inscriptions est généralisée. Le système MLS regroupait 61 000 propriétés à vendre au 2e trimestre de 2011, c’est 14 % de plus qu’au même trimestre l’an dernier. 

Chez nous, le prix médian d’une unifamiliale a atteint 220 000 $ au 2e trimestre. C’est 3 % de plus que l’an dernier, mais la plus faible progression de prix en deux ans. 

Selon l’ACI et bien d’autres experts, le marché immobilier résidentiel demeure relativement équilibré au Canada. Cet équilibre repose sur le ratio de propriétés à vendre pour chaque acheteur. Les taux d'intérêt très bas ont depuis plusieurs années favorisé les vendeurs. Mais il y a toujours une limite à ce qu’on peut débourser… Les acheteurs commencent à être moins nombreux. Attendons de voir si la Banque du Canada haussera son taux directeur cet automne. 

Croyez-vous que le marché immobilier au Québec s’essouffle? 

Autre billet:

Hausse des taux: c'est pour bientôt

Déménager à la retraite: une bonne affaire?

9 réflexions au sujet de « Prix des maisons : ça s’arrête quand? »

  1. ====Quand ça s’arrêtera?====
    Jamais
    ====Ces règles souhaitent protéger les emprunteurs qui achètent des maisons au-dessus de leur moyen ====
    Pas d’accord avec cet énoncé. La banque, en principe, considère le montant
    d’emprunt versus la capacité de payer et vous êtes bien placées, Sophie, pour en
    débattre. Mais les dés sont pipés par les meneurs du jeu ( Monopoly ).
    ====Croyez-vous que le marché immobilier au Québec s’essouffle? ====
    À mon avis, il s’essouffle partout ou le dieu dollar sévit.

  2. La seule façon de relentir la progression trop rapide du prix d’achat des propriétés,
    A mon avis lorsque vous acheté une résidence, le taux d’intérêt devrait être garanti par le gouvernement fédéral et ce taux devrait être gelé pour la durée de l’hypothèque de la première résidence achetée. Ce qui insiterait les propriétaires à garder leur résidence et les empècheraient de passer d’une résidence qui correspond à leur besoin plustot que de changer pour ue résidence plus huppée.
    Aussi les agents immobiliers payés au % ont tout intérêt à multiplier les transactions, à cet effet un mécanisme à développer devrait être mis en place afin de `réglementer ce métier.

  3. Juste un petit commentaire pour dire que les maximun pour les refinancement hypothécaires est 85% au lieu de 90% selon les nouvelles regles en vigueur mises en place par la SCHL (Société Canadienne d`habitation et de Logement)

  4. Selon moi la monté des prix vas s’arrêter le jour où tou les plein de cash vont s’être acheter 2 ou 3 maison et que les seuls acheteur seront les pauvres (car la classe moyenne à disparue, soit tu es riche soit tu es pauvre).

  5. @Maurice Lalancette et tous mes lecteurs
    Je passe mes vacances dans un chalet perdu en pleine nature (Mauricie). L’actualité financière est riche en ce mois d’août… Mais il est parfois bon de prendre un peu de recul, notamment avec la crise de la dette américaine. De retour, le 29 août. À bientôt. Sophie 🙂

  6. AMERICA IS ROTTING WHILE CHINA IS RISING
    The American Dream [1]
    Aug 23, 2011
    The American people better wake up while there is still time. America is literally rotting right in front of our eyes. Once upon a time, the greatest manufacturing cities in the world were in the United States. One of the big reasons why the Allies won World War II was because U.S. factories simply pumped out far more stuff than anyone else did. Our forefathers built this nation into an industrial powerhouse, but now our formerly great manufacturing cities are rusting, rotting and falling to pieces as nations such as China wipe the floor with us on the global economic stage. It is absolutely depressing to see what is happening to many of our most famous cities. For example, would you like to buy a house for less than $10,000? Just move to Baltimore. Of all the homes that have been sold in the city of Baltimore so far this year, one out of every ten has sold for less than $10,000 [2]. In fact, one home sold for just $10 [3].
    Like many formerly great U.S. cities, there are many parts of Baltimore that closely resemble war zones. Drugs and crime are everywhere, and there is a very real feeling of hopelessness in the air. Like many blue collar American cities, Baltimore is down on its luck and is in an obvious state of decline.
    It has gotten to the point where even most of the “quiet” areas of Baltimore are not really safe. Just consider the following comment that a reader named James left on a recent article [4]….
    My wife and I used to live in a quiet part of Baltimore City (yes there still are a few of those) a few years back. Six weeks after we moved there, she was mugged at 6:30 am, week day, on a semi-busy street while walking to her car. That was a wake up for both of us. The days of leaving your car unlocked or being in an urban area by yourself at night (or even daytime now) are over. We moved out of the city but we both still carry weapons with us and know how to use them. Do I want to use them? No. Not ever. But if “15 or 20 young men are approaching” me, I can’t go out like a punk and in no way can I ever let my wife be put in a harmful situation again.
    But Baltimore is far from alone. In Detroit, you can literally buy a house for one dollar [5].
    Yes, you read the correctly.
    The city is a complete and total basket case at this point. Just check out what an ABC News report [5] had to say about the real estate situation in Detroit….
    There are more than 40,000 vacant properties in Detroit, which has been hit hard by the foreclosure crisis, and the median home price is a stunningly low $7,000. In many neighborhoods, homes that were fetching $75,000 just three years ago are now selling for ten cents on the dollar or less.
    We used to have the greatest economy on earth, but now we have entered a seemingly permanent decline.
    There are hordes of people that can’t find work and there are tens of millions that have become completely dependent on the government for survival.
    Our economy does not create enough jobs to support our entire population any longer. The number of people forced to take government money continues to explode. The following is from a recent article posted on Yahoo News [6]….
    Altogether, there are now almost 46 million people in the United States on food stamps, roughly 15 percent of the population. That’s an increase of 74 percent since 2007, just before the financial crisis and a deep recession led to mass job losses.
    If the recession is over, then why does the number of Americans on food stamps continue to increase and set new records?
    In some areas of the country food stamps have become a way of life. Amazingly, approximately one-third [6] of the entire population of Alabama is now on food stamps.
    The U.S. economy [7] is coming apart at the seams and large numbers of Americans are starting to become very frustrated [8].
    We are starting to see a lot more “random” acts of violence. For example, two people were shot in the parking lot immediately after a recent preseason game between the Oakland Raiders and the San Francisco 49ers.
    The following is video of fans brawling in the stands during that same game….
    Yes, football fans have always been rowdy, but people seem to be losing their tempers much more easily these days. Sadly, when you have got millions of people losing their jobs and their homes that is going to tend to happen.
    Of course it doesn’t help that our politicians are so easily losing their tempers these days. For example, U.S. Representative Maxine Waters recently went on a massive tirade during which she proclaimed that “the Tea Party can go straight to hell”. The following is video of that incident….
    A d v e r t i s e m e n t
    America is rotting and hatred and anger are growing at a very frightening pace.
    This country has become deeply, deeply divided and our economy is collapsing.
    Meanwhile, China is rapidly rising.
    Not that China exactly plays fair. China massively subsidizes their biggest corporations, they brazenly steal technology from anyone that they can, they openly manipulate exchange rates and they allow their workers to be paid slave labor wages.
    The U.S. trading relationship with China is massively unfair, but very few of our politicians seem to care.
    So thousands of factories and millions of of jobs will continue to leave the United States and go over to China.
    Incredibly, the United States has lost an average of 50,000 manufacturing jobs [10]a month since China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001.
    Even the new Martin Luther King, Jr. Memorial on the National Mall was made in China [11].
    Ouch.
    As America rots, U.S. companies continue to invest huge amounts of money in China….
    *Coca-Cola is opening up three new factories [12] in China this year.
    *Disney recently broke ground on a $4.4 billion project [13] that will be known as Shanghai Disneyland.
    *Procter & Gamble has invested over a billion dollars [14] in operations in China.
    *Caterpillar has built 16 factories [15] in China and now employs more than 8,000 workers there.
    *Ford [16] is currently “building three factories in Chongqing as part of $1.6 billion investment that also includes another plant in Nanchang”.
    It isn’t just “the jobs of the past” that we are losing either.
    Andy Grove, the former CEO of Intel, says that our advanced technology companies are creating far more jobs overseas [17] than they are in the United States….
    Some 250,000 Foxconn employees in southern China produce Apple’s products. Apple, meanwhile, has about 25,000 employees in the U.S. That means for every Apple worker in the U.S. there are 10 people in China working on iMacs, iPods, and iPhones. The same roughly 10-to-1 relationship holds for Dell, disk-drive maker Seagate Technology (STX), and other U.S. tech companies.
    Americans need to be educated about what is going on. The United States has lost a staggering 32 percent [18] of its manufacturing jobs since the year 2000, and over 42,000 [19] manufacturing facilities in the United States have been closed down since 2001.
    In case you were wondering, that is not good news.
    Our politicians have lied to us. Globalism [20] is destroying our economy. We should have never merged our economy with the economies of nations such as China.
    Beautiful new infrastructure is going up all over China even as U.S. infrastructure rots and decays right in front of our eyes [21].
    America is being deindustrialized [22] at warp speed and most Americans don’t even understand what is happening.
    Pretty soon, even more cities are going to end up looking like Baltimore and Detroit. The mortgage delinquency rate is starting to rise [23] once again. As our jobs continue to be shipped out of the country, millions more Americans will lose their incomes and their homes.
    If you want to see what the future of your city is going to look like, you might want to check out the really disturbing images of the decline of Detroit that you can find right here [24].
    What has happened in Detroit and Baltimore will soon be happening to all the rest of us.
    The world is changing at a very, very rapid pace. Just because America was an economic powerhouse in past decades does not mean that it will always be that way.
    The truth is that America is rotting. If our leaders don’t start making some very fundamental changes to the way we do things, we will continue to rot.
    Very dark days are ahead for America. Enjoy all of this prosperity while you still can, because soon enough it will all be gone.

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